May 27, 2021 – A new study concludes that by 2025 the world could see a one-year spike in temperature, rising to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era – the lower of two temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement on climate change.
An ominous global temperature limit will be reached within the next five years, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization.
The study claims that by 2025 there is a 40% chance of at least one year being 1.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial era – the lower of two temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The conclusion draws upon multiple data sets, including those from the Met Office and Royal Meteorological Society in the UK, NOAA and NASA in the United States and the Meteorological Society of Japan.
Due to the natural variability of the climate, if the world sees a rise of 1.5°C within five years, it will be a temporary situation, likely to be followed by cooler years. However, the undulating trend is steadily rising, meaning that a 1.5°C rise could become permanent within a decade or two.
The Paris Agreement’s long-term goal is to keep any increase in the global average temperature to no more than 2°C and endeavour not to surpass 1.5°C.
Dr Joeri Rogelj, of Imperial College London, puts it this way, “The 1.5°C announcement should not be confused with the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement. The Paris targets refer to global warming – that is, the temperature increase of our planet once we smooth out year-to-year variations. A single year hitting 1.5°C therefore doesn’t mean the Paris limits are breached, but is nevertheless very bad news.”