Net als de Amerikaanse president is de Israëlische premier op oudere leeftijd veel conservatiever en voorzichtiger geworden. Daarom is een alomvattend plan waarbij Israël preventief Iran zou aanvallen om zijn vergeldingscapaciteit met ballistische raketten uit te schakelen – vóórdat nucleaire installaties worden aangevallen – tijdens zijn ambtstermijn praktisch ondenkbaar.
🎯 Mission Objective
Phase 1️⃣ – Eliminate Iran’s western ballistic missile launch capability (Kermanshah, Khorramabad, Tabriz) to deny immediate retaliation.
Phase 2️⃣ – Disable central infrastructure (command, reserves, logistics).
Phase 3️⃣ – Destroy nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow (Qom).
✈️ Strike Assets and Ordnance
Aircraft, Roles, Weapons
✔️F-35I “Adir”, Stealth deep strike, SEAD GBU-31 JDAM, Spice-1000, SDB
✔️F-15I “Ra’am” , Long-range, heavy payload GBU-28 bunker buster, JDAMs
✔️EW (Nachshon), Jamming, cyber/ECM Electronic countermeasures
✔️Tankers , Mid-air refueling
🚀 Ordnance Estimates by Target
Phase 1️⃣: Missile Sites
Kermanshah (6 facilities): ~16 F-35I/F-15I, GBU-28 & GBU-31
Khorramabad (2 garrisons): ~6 F-35I
Tabriz (2 sites): ~6 F-35I
⭕️~28 aircraft, 60–80 guided bombs
Phase 2️⃣: Command/Support
Isfahan, Tehran, Shiraz : ~16 F-15I, JDAMs/decoys
Fordow security network: 4–6 F-35I
⭕️~16–20 aircraft, ~40 precision bombs
Phase 3️⃣: Nuclear Sites
Natanz: Deeply buried, requires GBU-28 in multiple strikes
Fordow (Qom): Heavily hardened in mountain, possibly survivable without nuclear/MOP-class weapon
⭕️~12–16 aircraft, ~20 deep-penetration bombs
📊 Total Estimated Requirements (Initial Wave)
📍60–70 aircraft total
📍120–140 precision weapons
📍4–6 refueling tankers
📍2–3 EW aircraft
📍UAVs/drones for diversion and ISR
🔧 Penetration Limitations
💡Natanz: ~30–80 meters deep — destroyable with GBU-28s.
💡Fordow: >80 meters, in a mountain — highly survivable unless using MOP or nuclear warheads.
💡Iranian S-300/SAM coverage requires ECM or low-RCS (F-35I).
🔄 Operational Enhancements
✔️Cyberattack preceding kinetic strikes to blind Iranian defense networks.
✔️UAV/decoy wave to saturate and deplete Iranian air defenses.
✔️Rampage or Delilah missiles as standoff options from beyond Iranian airspace.
❗ Risks & Realities
⛔️ Fordow may be immune to non-nuclear weapons.
⛔️ Iran’s retaliatory options include mobile missile launchers and proxies.
⛔️ Total surprise and synchronization are critical — delays between phases increase risk.